Great post. As someone with very little knowledge of Georgian politics, I found this highly informative. Given Ivanishvili's remarkably large presence in the Georgian economy and political system, it appears, from my reading, that adding him to the SDN list is almost tantamount to sanctioning Georgia itself. Would it naturally follow that Georgia should be added to the EU's list of high-risk third countries? To FATF's grey list? I also wondered if there are other countries where a single oligarch/billionaire is so dominant. There's something fascinating to be explored here around extreme income inequality and sanctions exposure.
There is a risk of pretty wide ranging sanctions implications for all kinds of major projects, but the action shouldnt affect unrelated projects and businesses (Despite Ivanishvili's dominance there are still many, though certainly many of the most profitable ones he has taken a part in - the real test will be at the central bank as Ivanishvili could sacrifice far more Georgian interests if he gets them involved, and its no longer independent, see the link to Partskhaladze blog post within)
And no, I do not believe there is a single other state in which one oligarch / billionaire is so dominant.
Great post. As someone with very little knowledge of Georgian politics, I found this highly informative. Given Ivanishvili's remarkably large presence in the Georgian economy and political system, it appears, from my reading, that adding him to the SDN list is almost tantamount to sanctioning Georgia itself. Would it naturally follow that Georgia should be added to the EU's list of high-risk third countries? To FATF's grey list? I also wondered if there are other countries where a single oligarch/billionaire is so dominant. There's something fascinating to be explored here around extreme income inequality and sanctions exposure.
and thank you for the kind words!
Ivanishvili has protection in the EU from Orban, who flew in after the election and will block any sanctions. I would think it more likely than not that Georgia gets added to the FATF grey list because of another bill that Ivanishvili and GD have passed on exempting assets moved from tax havens for taxes: see this write-up https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/its-foreign-agent-bill-caused-an-uproar-now-georgian-dream-has-fast-tracked-another-concerning-law/
There is a risk of pretty wide ranging sanctions implications for all kinds of major projects, but the action shouldnt affect unrelated projects and businesses (Despite Ivanishvili's dominance there are still many, though certainly many of the most profitable ones he has taken a part in - the real test will be at the central bank as Ivanishvili could sacrifice far more Georgian interests if he gets them involved, and its no longer independent, see the link to Partskhaladze blog post within)
And no, I do not believe there is a single other state in which one oligarch / billionaire is so dominant.